They track proprietary alternative data for over 230 companies globally, covering nearly 300 reported KPIs that matter for stock performance.
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This is a good piece of quant research on the biotech sector.
Biotech is hard – “Biotech stocks lose more often than any others. The median (50th percentile) biotech company has delivered an annualized return of -15% in contrast to the median US company’s 1% annualized return. Since 1996, 67% of US biotechs have had negative cumulative returns versus 48% for all other US companies.“
Their model suggests large specialist fund ownership, high insider buying, peer momentum, low short interest, and valuation based on total spend – all correlate nicely with positive returns.
The stock is down 34% YTD – SaaSpocalypse and CloudX competitor launch are likely all responsible for the poor sentiment.
They are reporting this week, and in these markets, fundamentals matter even more.
Oxford DataPlan has one of the best revenue forecasts for the stock, and for Q4 it is showing a big difference to consensus and the company’s own Q4 guidance.
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A simple query into Claude’s chatbot: “Which companies is Anthropic capable of dislocating or disrupting?” yields some fascinating results and was in our view a fruitful source of hedges for our firm
All nine of the world’s nine most valuable companies were founded on the US West Coast. Eight are the tech companies you would expect. But the ninth is Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, which began as a subsidiary of the Standard Oil Corporation of California.
“Firms are smart money, and when firms sell equity, that’s a sign that equity is overpriced. Currently, we do not see positive net issuance across the entire market – i.e., firms are not net sellers of equity to external investors. This fact is evident in Figure 2, which shows the sum of dollar net issuance in the past year, normalized by the stock market’s total capitalization. For much of the 1990s, issuance was positive, and at the peak of the bubble in 2000, issuance was more than 5% of market cap, meaning that 5% of the market had been newly issued in the past year. After that bubble collapsed, issuance turned negative and has largely remained so, with the notable exception of the COVID bubble of 2021, when issuance peaked above 2%. But today, issuance is decidedly negative at -0.9%; the supply of shares is shrinking.“
“In the US, 2025 marked the year with the fewest private equity fund closes in more than a decade.“
The big got bigger – “So-called mega-funds, of $5 billion or more, accounted for 49.2% of total capital raised for the industry last year, the highest share since the 2008 financial crisis, underscoring LPs’ preference for funds at scale.“
Oxford DataPlan is forecasting $61.46bn of Q4 2025 Search Ad revenue – the market is at $61.365 so very much inline. Their forecast record has been impeccable (see chart).
The total advertising line is forecast at $81.280, roughly in line (0.5% higher) with strength particularly in YouTube.
This is a similar growth rate as last quarter – Q4 Total Ad revenue growth (nominal) is +12%, while in Q3 it was +12.6%.
Most recent daily data from ODP is tracking 6% ahead of the same period last year – Google doesn’t guide like Meta, but tracking this data helps assess sentiment on the call.
Results tomorrow.
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“Five-year cancer survival rates in the US topped 70% for the first time, the American Cancer Society’s annual report found. That means that a person diagnosed with cancer is 70% as likely to be alive five years later as the average person. It represents steady progress: In the 1970s, the figure was 50%.”
AI could offer more. Cancer has a lot of detail and likely needs an insanely large statistical model to solve.
